Oh, The Places You’ll Go!
Oh, The Places You’ll Go: The “Danger” of Omitted Variable Bias
“And then things start to happen,
don't worry. Don't stew.
Just go right along.
You'll start happening too.”
-Dr. Seuss, Oh, the Places You’ll Go
This is one of the greatest books I have ever read. Its themes were applicable when I graduated from high school, and are relevant now.
I still remember, being 16 years of age, with my life all planned out. I would become a teacher after undergrad, be married by 24 and have completed my masters in ESL (English as a Second Language) by 26 with my first child on the way. By 30, I’d be wrapping up my doctorate with a fourth little darling on the way, and my incredibly sweet, tall, dark, and ever-so-handsome husband would be just as supportive, as always. I would eventually work with my dad at his private mental health clinic. This was my life plan since age 16, and it only took two years of post-college plan-implementation to COMPLETELY change it all around. I still remember 16-year-old me sitting next to my Boston Children’s Chorus choir director, Anthony Trecek-King, when we were on our way back from a tour in Mexico. I shared my plan, and he said it was a great plan but it would probably all change. I gave him a look of disapproval because he was obviously wrong—I thought.
Six years later, I have done NONE of the items I planned to do. NONE. And who is to blame? Everyone’s favorite party crasher: omitted variable bias.
In econometrics, if someone developed a regression model to predict my future based on a set of data (let’s assume that all of the data was collected under identical conditions for five years with a normal distribution) the researcher would most-likely determine that I would end up where I had intended in my 16-year-old plan. I had every reason in the world to follow my clearly laid-out path, and I had all of the tools, from the supportive boyfriend to many exciting post-graduate opportunities. I stayed faithful to the plan until I was 23. But the thing is, when collecting data and making predictions, there is always that teeny tiny factor, omitted variable bias, that gives way for errors like a doctor to inaccurately predicting I would be 5’9” (true story). But in this case, what are the omitted variables that ambushed my life plan?
What was the omitted variable that drove me to abandon the safe route, leave my teaching job without a single interview lined up, go to grad school for an MPA in non-profit management, travel the world alone, tell him “I’ve had enough”; tell her “I disagree”, write the article, stay an extra 24-hours, miss my flight on purpose, explore the celebrity relationship, separate myself from the toxic friendship, send the email, do everything I would normally be too intimidated to do? What makes you do those super scary risky things that change your life forever?
That thing gives us the power and the strength to let our subconscious wants and desires become our reality. Like you know when you are prepping for a night out so you select two outfits and ask a friend which is better? And they say the modest option 2, but you lobby for the eccentric option 1 like it’s your job? That’s what I mean. You knew what you wanted all along. And once you realize that your desires can be your reality, you’ll end up doing exactly what you heart desires. And when that happens, and your curiosity and excitement for life's treasures takes the driver's seat, you open up an entirely new world of possibilities.
A new world of possibilities, new sights to see, new experiences, new people, new lessons, and an entirely new network of what the world has to offer is now at your fingertips. But the first step is taking that leap. Letting go for a minute and making a choice based solely on what seems super cool to you!
It sounds unwise and naïve, but if you can give yourself the freedom to do it take baby steps:
1) Think about the one thing you’ve ALWAYS wanted to do. ALWAYS. Perform on a stage? Speak at an event? Dance? Jump into a puddle of water?
2) Choose a private, secret way to test it out. Or be public about it-your choice!
a. So if its perform, maybe sign up to perform for a friend one-on-one, at an open mic, a nursing home, or even your church. Next time it rains, buy rain boots, drive two towns over and jump in! Aspiring dancer? Sign up for a beginner group class where everyone is learning together! If you’re nervous, practice at home first, then go!
3) Be intentional about your purpose: you are doing this for you, not to keep up with someone.
4) Remind yourself that you’ll never really know what happens next until you give it a try.
5) DO IT!!!!!
I know it appears that I am over simplifying it, but I’m actually not. At the end of the day, many of these things are about taking action. And while some of our deep aspirations take time to achieve, you have to understand and remember that it starts off with your mindset. If you practice keeping a mindset of “I’m going to just go for it and see what happens” then you’ll find yourself taking risks you would never have imagined.
And when that happens, all of those omitted variables that were controlled for will be the catalyst for not only an inaccurate prediction, but a life of fulfillment and joy. You’ll discover things you never thought you would, both about yourself and the world, and you’ll be surprised yet satisfied with all of the places you’ll go. :)
Prayer: Dear Lord, I love you. Help me to continue taking chances and risks that I feel in my heart. When I get nervous to take a chance, help me to remember the verse 2 Timothy 1:7 and know that I do not have to be afraid of taking risks. Thank you for giving me the strength to take these chances, and I pray that people who read the post will be encouraged to take their own risks no matter how large or how small. Amen.
If you want to be inspired by the famous Dr. Seuss text, click here to read the text: https://www.ncra.org/files/mcms/f54dbcd1-4e78-47b1-916c-c73d66200335.pdf